Narrow the field before you spend live traffic on a slow experiment.
Run a simulated experiment against synthetic participants and get a winner, a conversion rate per variant with credible intervals, and the uplift, before exposing real traffic.
OVERVIEW
A live A/B test is honest but slow and expensive. You need real traffic, you wait for enough of it, and weak variants quietly burn visitors the whole time. Often the test ends inconclusive, and you have spent the exposure either way.
Polyhyle lets you run the experiment first, against synthetic participants. Each one scores your variants and picks the one they would act on, and the result comes back as a conversion rate per variant with a credible interval, a winner, and the expected cost of being wrong. You narrow the field before launch, so the live test only ever runs the contenders worth running.
INSIDE Polyhyle
A/B tests (pre-live)
Compare three landing page variants for request-access conversion before launching the public test.
01
Set up the variants and split
Define the variants and the traffic split you plan to run, just like a live experiment.
02
Collect a pick from each participant
Every synthetic participant scores the variants, chooses the one they would act on, and explains the deciding factor.
03
Estimate conversion with uncertainty
Picks become a conversion rate per variant with a 95% credible interval and a sample size, so the result carries its own confidence.
04
Call the winner before launch
Get the winning variant, the uplift over the runner-up, and the expected loss if you are wrong, before spending a single visitor.
Polyhyle.app/simulations/ab-tests-pre-live
SIMULATION DETAIL
A/B tests (pre-live)
Compare three landing page variants for request-access conversion before launching the public test.
Running
Winner
B
Uplift
+25.8%
Significance
94%
World inputs
Variant copy, layout assumptions, and CTA emphasis
Traffic mix by segment, intent, source, and buying stage
Success criteria for conversion, trust, and objection reduction
Simulated outcome
Run variant B live first, keep variant C as the challenger for enterprise traffic, and drop variant A before it consumes test volume.
Behavior signal
30 day simulated horizon
SIGNALS YOU GET BACK
WinnerBUplift+25.8%Significance94%
Run variant B live first, keep variant C as the challenger for enterprise traffic, and drop variant A before it consumes test volume.
WHY SIMULATE THIS
The usual way to choose between variants is to run them all live and wait for significance. That means real traffic on options you suspect are weak, weeks of waiting, and tests that still end inconclusive more often than anyone admits.
Simulating it first removes the obvious losers before they cost you anything. You go into the live test with the two or three contenders worth running and a read on the likely winner, so the experiment is shorter, cheaper, and more likely to settle.